PHILOS 2 UCI Prediction Paradox Version of The KK Principle Discussion

Question Description

Respond to one of these prompts and be clear about which one you are referring to:

NOTE: YOUR RESPONSE TO ONE OF THE PROMPTS BELOW IS DUE ON THURSDAY AT NOON. YOUR CRITICAL FEEDBACK TO TWO PEER RESPONSES IS DUE ON SUNDAY AT NOON. CANVAS ONLY SHOWS THE SECOND DEADLINE

PROMPT #1: LOTTERY PARADOX: People speak about their own and other people’s beliefs both in categorical terms and in terms of degrees. Philosophers accordingly distinguished between an epistemology of belief and an epistemology of degrees of belief. How are the two epistemologies connected? According to the standard view – called the Lockean thesis –, it is rational to believe proposition p if and only if it is rational to believe p to a degree above φ, where φ is some threshold value close to 1. While the Lockean thesis appears plausible on its face, some have argued that the lottery paradox disproves it. Explain how the lottery paradox conflicts with the Lockean thesis. Do you have ideas on how to connect the epistemology of belief and the epistemology of degrees of belief?

PROMPT #2: PREDICTION PARADOX: Explain the role the KK-thesis is said to play in the unexpected exam paradox. Do you agree that the unexpected exam paradox rests on the KK-thesis? Do you accept the KK-thesis? Explain your answers.

PROMPT #3: CONFIRMATION PARADOX: What, if anything, is problematic about claiming that a brown shoe confirms the hypothesis that all ravens are black? What is your favorite solution to the paradox of the ravens and why.

Prof. Angela

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